SELECTION OF SAMPLES OF CARS WITH THE NECESSARY PARAMETERS OF PASSABILITY AND SPEED FOR THE TRANSPORT FLOW OF MILITARY LOGISTICS

Abstract

The article deals with the following questions: tasks and hypotheses about options for selecting samples of cars with the required levels of their passability and speed indicators; the list and specifics of determining the probabilities of implementation of variants of selected models of cars with the required levels of their passability and speed indicators of each; necessary conditions for improving vehicles; the list and specifics of determining the probabilities of implementing variants of car samples with the required levels of their passability and speed indicators of each; algorithms for determining the quantitative values of the elements of the reliability matrix for the selection of cars with the required characteristics of passability and speed, depending on the conditions of movement; an example of estimating the quantitative values of the elements of the reliability matrix for the selection of cars with the required characteristics of passability and speed, depending on the conditions of movement. The authors came to the conclusion that a high level of blurring of the signs of patency and speed of military vehicles (VAT) increases the error of the prediction of the reliability of the implementation of options for the selection of vehicles for the movement of the flow of material resources, taking into account difficult road conditions. Along with this, the sum of the elements of each line of the reliability matrix is the sum of the probabilities of correct and incorrect identification of one particular variant of vehicles with the required characteristics of passability and speed. That is, each row is the probability of a complete group of phenomena, so it is always equal to one. A reliability matrix with such properties is called stochastic. Checking the presence of this property is an effective means of controlling the correct solution of the task of predicting the implementation of vehicle selection options, in conditions of blurring of the features of the options, when this task is solved by the method of statistical hypothesis testing.